Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.