A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."